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Duration of Unemployment in US Rising
November 12, 2009
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U.S. Imports from Canada down 50%
November 8, 2009
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Import declines seem to have hit bottom and are now on the way up.
US at 17.5% Unemployed and Underemployed
November 7, 2009
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The New York Times published an article on November 6th that talked to the point that the “broader measure of unemployment stands at 17.5%“.
The 17.5% rate includes the officially unemployed, who have looked for work in the last four weeks. It also includes discouraged workers, who have looked in the past year, as well as millions of part-time workers who want to be working full time.
The actual rate of underemployment may be even higher since the official government definitions and measures of unemployment miss other underemployment cases.
According to wikipedia, in economics, the term underemployment has three different distinct meanings and applications. All meanings involve a situation in which a person is working, unlike unemployment, where a person who is searching for work cannot find a job. Underemployment can mean:
- The employment of workers with high skill levels in low-wage jobs that do not require such abilities, for example a trained medical doctor who works as a taxi driver.
- “Involuntary part-time” workers — workers who could (and would like to) be working for a full work-week but can only find part-time work. By extension, the term is also used in regional planning to describe regions where economic activity rates are unusually low, due to a lack of job opportunities, training opportunities, or due to a lack of services such as childcare and public transportation.
- “Overstaffing” or “hidden unemployment”, the practice in which businesses or entire economies employ workers who are not fully occupied—for example, workers currently not being used to produce goods or services due to legal or social restrictions or because the work is highly seasonal.
Former U.S. labour secretary Robert Reich has said that he believes the Unofficial U.S. jobless rate could be as high as 20%.
Related:
Latest Employment Stats for October
November 6, 2009
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| Region | Unemployment Rate |
|---|---|
| Ottawa | 5.2% |
| Gatineau | 5.9% |
| Ontario | 9.3% |
| Canada | 8.6% |
| U.S. | 10.2% (26 year high) / 17.5% (including underemployed) |
The Globe and Mail has this interactive webpage that gives numbers by city and province:
BMO publishes employment reports for the US and Canada.
Stats Canada Labour Force Survey Nov 6, 2009 provides some insights in the job types and associated impacts:
| September 2009 | October 2009 | September to October 2009 | October 2008 to October 2009 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonally adjusted | ||||||
| thousands | % change | |||||
| Class of worker | ||||||
| Employees | 14,110.5 | 14,039.8 | -0.5 | -3.5 | ||
| Self-employed | 2,727.5 | 2,755.0 | 1.0 | 3.9 | ||
| Public/private sector employees | ||||||
| Public | 3,433.0 | 3,407.4 | -0.7 | -1.6 | ||
| Private | 10,677.5 | 10,632.3 | -0.4 | -4.1 | ||
| All industries | 16,838.0 | 16,794.8 | -0.3 | -2.3 | ||
| Goods-producing sector | 3,714.6 | 3,708.3 | -0.2 | -8.2 | ||
| Agriculture | 319.5 | 321.9 | 0.8 | -1.3 | ||
| Natural resources | 313.0 | 301.7 | -3.6 | -11.0 | ||
| Utilities | 150.3 | 149.9 | -0.3 | 0.9 | ||
| Construction | 1,166.8 | 1,178.0 | 1.0 | -5.8 | ||
| Manufacturing | 1,765.0 | 1,756.8 | -0.5 | -11.0 | ||
| Services-producing sector | 13,123.4 | 13,086.4 | -0.3 | -0.5 | ||
| Trade | 2,662.9 | 2,632.1 | -1.2 | -1.7 | ||
| Transportation and warehousing | 797.7 | 819.9 | 2.8 | -5.8 | ||
| Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing | 1,121.1 | 1,118.0 | -0.3 | 4.4 | ||
| Professional, scientific and technical services | 1,199.8 | 1,196.9 | -0.2 | -0.6 | ||
| Business, building and other support services | 645.8 | 639.0 | -1.1 | -4.6 | ||
| Educational services | 1,188.4 | 1,196.5 | 0.7 | -1.0 | ||
| Health care and social assistance | 1,946.8 | 1,955.1 | 0.4 | 1.7 | ||
| Information, culture and recreation | 791.5 | 785.1 | -0.8 | 4.8 | ||
| Accommodation and food services | 1,032.0 | 1,034.5 | 0.2 | -2.9 | ||
| Other services | 805.4 | 785.5 | -2.5 | 2.5 | ||
| Public administration | 932.0 | 923.8 | -0.9 | -3.1 | ||
US States With More then 10% Unemployment
August 22, 2009
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| Michigan | 15.20% |
| Rhode Island | 12.40% |
| Oregon | 12.20% |
| South Carolina | 12.10% |
| Nevada | 12% |
| California | 11.60% |
| Ohio | 11.10% |
| North Carolina | 11% |
| District of Columbia | 10.90% |
| Kentucky | 10.90% |
| Tennessee | 10.80% |
| Indiana | 10.70% |
| Florida | 10.60% |
| Illinois | 10.30% |
| Alabama | 10.10% |
| Georgia | 10.10% |
JobNob – Linking Unemployed and Startups?
August 15, 2009
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I like watching what is going on in Silicon Valley in general. There are always good tech and trend insights. But there are also some very innovative ideas related to social innovation.
For instance there is the “JobNob” events being held in the valley. JobNob links unemployed people with start-ups looking for volunteers to give a win-win to both. The JobNob pitch is below:
Come “Jobnob” with cool new startups and other job seekers at this informal networking happy hour where unemployed people who want to keep their skills sharp are matched up with startups that could use their help.
- Bummed Out Job Seekers – are you willing to volunteer at least 5 hours a week for a startup? Help out a startup and you’ll get a leg up on the competition, keep your skills sharp and have some good experience to put on your resume. And when the giant gears of the economy start churning again, you could well be one of the first ones back on the payroll.
- Cash Strapped Startups – are you willing to buy a smart, talented, unemployed person a drink? Come with one or two specific projects that you need accomplished and we’ll help you find the perfect person to get the job done. And if you get funded you can always hire them!
They have run three JobNob events so far and have two more scheduled for August and September.
Related information and press coverage is available here.
This would be a great program to have running in Ottawa. Organizations such as Lead to Win, OCRI, The Ottawa Network, CATA or Ottawa Talent Initiative would be good sponsor organizations to make this happen locally.
Fewer People Dying?
June 8, 2009
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According to the Globe and Mail today - the funeral industry is in decline due to a decline in the death rate.
INTERESTED IN LAUNCHING A NEW TECH BUSINESS? LEAD TO WIN WANTS TO HELP YOU!
June 7, 2009
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Here is a recent call for participants from Dr Tony Bailetti for the 3rd session of the Lead to Win program which starts on July 28th – please spread the word!
INTERESTED IN LAUNCHING A NEW TECH BUSINESS? LEAD TO WIN WANTS TO HELP YOU!
If you are serious about starting a profitable technology business in Canada’s Capital region, we invite you to apply to the next session of the Lead to Win program.
The Lead to Win program is free to qualified applicants – no strings attached, no small print, no surprises. Individuals from 37 organizations are investing to make Lead to Win participants successful for the benefit of the individual and our community.
Details on the program, including past success and testimonials from participants are available at www.leadtowin.ca. If you need additional information over what is at www.leadtowin.ca, please contact:
- David Hudson, dhudson1014@rogers.com
- Ian Graham, ian@thecodefactory.ca
- Ray Barton, ray.barton@vitesse.ca
- Rowland Few, rfew@sce.carleton.ca
- Serge Lafontaine, slafontaine@arrow.com
- Tony Bailetti, Bailetti@sce.carleton.ca
- Yannick Bouchard, bouchard.yannick@gatineau.ca
Spaces in the Lead to Win program are limited – so prospective participants are encouraged to apply as soon as possible.
Application instructions are available online at www.leadtowin.ca.
If you know of others who may benefit from Lead to Win, please forward this email to them – help get the word out!
Regards.
Tony Bailetti
Lead to Win Program
Business, business incubators, Canada, Commercialization, Creative Class, depression 2.0, Economy, Ecosystems, Entreprenuerism, General Interest, Government, Government Policy, Information Technology, Innovation, Innovation Hub, Jobs, Local Start-ups, Microbusiness, OCRI, Ontario, Opportunities, Ottawa, Ottawa Start-ups, Regional Economic Development, Talent First Network, Technology, The Code Factory, Trends, Unemployment, Universities, Venture Capital, Web 2.0
US and Canada Job Losses Continue – May Numbers
June 5, 2009
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Latest unemployment numbers today:
- Canada – 8.4% (highest in 11 years ) – Ontario is now at 9.4% (highest in 15 years)
- US – 9.2% (up from 8.9% in April)
Other interesting lists:
Broadband Infrastructure Projects for Economic Development
June 3, 2009
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A recent report from OECD advocates government policy makers deploy stimulus funds and investment into broadband infrastructure -
Broadband infrastructure, in particular, can be a good target for economic stimulus spending because many projects can be initiated relatively quickly, are labour-intensive, can minimise economic leakages, and may promise stronger marginal impacts on supply and productivity than investing in established networks such as electricity, gas, water and transportation.
The full report is available here and in interesting to read. A wealth of related data on broadband deployments current as of December 2008 (including pricing, policies, penetration, etc) is available from OECD in detailed excel spreadsheets here.
My sense is that Canada’s economy would certainly benefit more from advancing communications infrastructure projects than it would by having another government building or public works project.
US VC Investments Down 61% in 1Q09
May 22, 2009
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Reports from Mercury Press highlight the continuing decline of Venture Capital in the US:
Nationally, VCs invested $3 billion into U.S. companies, down 61 percent from the $7.7 billion invested in the first quarter of 2008. It was smallest quarterly sum since 1997, and the sharpest decline on record.
In the Bay Area, the world’s leading hub of innovation, $1.2 billion was invested in 172 deals during the quarter. That was a 43 percent decrease in dollars and 26 percent decrease in “deal flow” from the previous quarter.
Lead to Win Program Update – April 25th
April 26, 2009
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CTV Ottawa News Coverage This Sunday!
Tune-in to CTV Ottawa TECH NOW with Paul Brent on April 26th at 6PM for a special report on Lead to Win!
City of Ottawa, Carleton University and Business – United in Leadership for the Community
Recent press releases on the Lead to Win program:
Media Coverage
Visit the Lead to Win website to see all the latest media coverage on the Lead to Win program.
Free Re-use of Lead to Win Materials for Other Canadian Communities
All Lead to Win program materials (e.g. online tools, learning materials, processes, network) will be made freely available to other communities who would like to re-use, or adapt, the materials, procedures and network for their own regional benefit. Contact us at lead@leadtowin.ca if you are interested.
Spread the Word!
Please spread the word on the Lead to Win program to prospective candidates, community organizations and sponsors.
Can you Help?
If you know politicians or government leaders in agencies who want to join the City of Ottawa, the Chamber of Commerce and Carleton University in taking a strong, visible leadership position to help make a difference – please make them aware of Lead to Win and ask them to contact Dr Bailetti at 613 829 8885, bailetti@sce.carleton.ca
Best practices, Business, Canada, Canadian Politics, Commercialization, Creative Class, depression 2.0, Economy, Ecosystems, Entreprenuerism, General Interest, Government, Government Policy, Innovation, Innovation Hub, Ottawa, Ottawa Start-ups, Regional Economic Development, Talent First Network, Technology, The Code Factory, Trends, Unemployment, Universities
Ottawa Tech Jobs Melting Away
April 25, 2009
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The Ottawa-Gatineau unemployment rate took a sharp jump recently and currently sits at 5.2%.
Under the surface, the situation for tech jobs is increasingly serious.
In Ottawa-Gatineau technology jobs have been evaporating at an alarming rate - in just the last 12 months, the region has lost 8,800 tech jobs. This represents greater then a 14% loss. Further, Ottawa-Gatineau has lost almost 30% of its regional tech jobs compared to 2000. Ottawa-Gatineau tech jobs peaked at 74,000 in 2000 and are now down to 53, 800 as of March 2009.
Stats Canada has published that during the 2002 bubble burst – 4 out of 5 laid off tech workers did not find work in high tech, and 2 of 5 left the City of Ottawa.
The tech sector is continuing to shed jobs in Ottawa-Gatineau.
Ottawa-Gatineau faces a significant loss of tech capability and associated economic impact/growth for the region.
Lead to Win is focused on launching new technology businesses in Ottawa-Gatineau to retain and create new tech jobs. If you are concerned about the state of the technology sector in Ottawa-Gatineau or are interested in launching a new tech business in the region, you are encouraged to visit www.leadtowin.ca.
Business, Canada, Creative Class, depression 2.0, Economy, Ecosystems, Entreprenuerism, General Interest, Government, Government Policy, Information Technology, Innovation, Innovation Hub, Jobs, Local Start-ups, Microbusiness, Ontario, Opportunities, Ottawa, Ottawa Start-ups, Regional Economic Development, Stats Canada, Talent First Network, Technology, Trends, Unemployment
More Beef, Less Bun!
April 18, 2009
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We are in the midst of the worst economic downturn Ottawa has seen, and we are watching our high tech sector melt away.
I find it very disturbing that there are few organizations – other than the Talent First Network and NRC-IRAP – that are stepping up and taking visible, urgent and concrete steps to help out our community.
Talent First Network is aggressively pushing ahead with the Lead to Win program, which has garnered strong community support.
The IRAP team have ramped up their pace, they have streamlined processes to match the urgency of the situation, they are pursuing new programs, and they are on the frontline – engaging the entrepreneurs and high tech businesses who are working to expand existing businesses or build new businesses which will revitalize our high tech sector.
The big question is – Where is the leadership from the other tax-funded organizations? The City of Ottawa, the Ontario Ministry of Research and Innovation and Industry Canada have spent truckloads of money on the Ontario Centres of Excellence, Ottawa Centre for Research and Innovation and The Ottawa Partnership (TOP) – these organizations should be front and center but are virtually invisible.
When it comes to getting results from our tax dollars and leadership from the organizations they fund – it’s time for “More Beef and Less Bun!“ -
In the current economic downturn, I would rather see more of my tax dollars going to IRAP and the Talent First Network. They have the right attitude and they are focused on helping our community.
It’s time for MORE BEEF! LESS BUN!
Business, Canada, Canadian Politics, Creative Class, depression 2.0, Economy, Ecosystems, Entreprenuerism, General Interest, Government, Government Policy, Information Technology, Innovation, Innovation Hub, Jobs, Local Start-ups, Microbusiness, OCRI, Ontario, Open Source, Opportunities, Ottawa, Ottawa Start-ups, Regional Economic Development, Talent First Network, Technology, Trends, Unemployment, Universities, Venture Capital, Web 2.0
Forget Monorails! The New Snake Oil for Economic Development is Green Tech and Clean Energy!
April 18, 2009
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Green tech and clean energy is the new snake oil – and is increasingly being pushed in Ottawa and other communities as “the future of technology” and the source for attracting venture capital, private investment and driving massive economic growth… However the facts paint a different picture!
Venturesource reports steady declines in Venture investment in the green tech and clean energy sectors, with $189 million of Venture Capital invested in 15 deals during the first quarter, down 59 percent from the $457 million invested in 24 such deals last year. This is in comparison to ICT investments, which even in the worst of times are still almost 10 times greater for the same period!
Clean Energy, Green Tech – it walks, talks and looks like a Monorail -
Business, Canada, Canadian Politics, Computing, Debacle, depression 2.0, Economy, Ecosystems, Entreprenuerism, General Interest, Government, Government Policy, Information Technology, Innovation, Jobs, Local Start-ups, OCRI, Ontario, Opportunities, Ottawa, Ottawa Start-ups, Regional Economic Development, Technology, Trends, Unemployment, Venture Capital
Unrest in the Workplace
March 26, 2009
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Recent reports in the news are highlighting increasing aggression and unrest in the workplace.
There have also been reports of incidents against executives at firms with layoffs – ranging from physical assault to murder. In France there have been two cases of hostage taking of managers by employees – at Sony and 3M.
Recession Proof Businesses – US Gun Shops
March 26, 2009
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According to Reuters, in the first two months of 2009, around 2.5 million Americans bought guns, a 26 percent increase over the same period in 2008. Gun dealers report this rise in sales to be a consequence of fear of social unrest as the ailing economy pushes the newly destitute deeper into misery.
The Orlando Sentinel’s also reports that gun dealers are experiencing shortages of bullets -
Some say it began with the election of President Barack Obama. Others say it’s about the economic downturn or fear of crime. Whatever the reasons, ammunition has been selling like plywood and bottled water in the days before a hurricane.
Eleanor Duckwall’s blog on the nationwide ammunition shortage that has hit the U.S. provides a comprehensive review of the various possible reasons for the ammunition shortage, which may include:
- An increase in the size and number of paramilitary police units
- An increase in the use of “patrol carbines” in law enforcement
- Fears of draconian gun and ammunitions restrictions
- Economic instability
Related articles:
- US, Canada and European Governments Actively Preparing for Widescale Civil Unrest?
- US gun sales on increase (Financial Times)
- Gun dealers experiencing shortages of bullets (Orlando Sentinel)
- Gun Sales Soar in United States
- Obama Driving Surge in Gun Sales, Firearms Groups Say
- Smith & Wesson, Ruger shares explode
- CBS News Report -
Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters See Increasing Challenges in 2009
March 16, 2009
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The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME) Association released a report in late February, that summarized survey results from Canadian manufacturers and exporters on their perceptions of business conditions.
Key trends from the survey include:
- A majority of manufacturers and exporters expect the value of new orders to fall over the next three months – 56 per cent say that orders are likely to decrease between February and May. This is a less optimistic outlook than in January when only 43 per cent of companies were expecting new orders to drop in the coming three months.
- 45 per cent of companies say that employment levels are likely to fall. This is slightly higher than the 42 per cent of companies that expected their employment levels to fall in the January survey.
- The credit crunch is affecting smaller companies the most, but larger companies are now reporting difficulty accessing financing. 60 per cent of manufacturers and exporters report difficulties accessing adequate levels of financing including obtaining working capital, extending lines of credit, accessing financing for new technologies and product development.
S&P Performance Over Bear Markets
March 14, 2009
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This chart from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ provides a very interesting trending perspective of the S&P performance over the last two bear markets versus the current bear market. The Dow performance is also on the chart but is not apples to apples relative to the S&P lines.
Ontario Commercialization Network to be Reformed?
March 14, 2009
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The Ontario Commercialization Network Steering Committee Report was delivered to the Minister late February. PWC produced a report on OCN prior to the Steering Committee Report but it was not made public.
The report makes some blunt assessments of serious problems with Ontario’s current approach to economic development and commercialization. Some key findings include:
- Lack of co-ordination and sharing across many fragmented organizations
- Lack of overall governance
- Lack of clear entry-point for clients/entrepreneurs
- Lack of metrics and performance targets
- Need for better co-ordination between Provincial and Federal governments
- Economic conditions demand quick action
Key recommendations include specifics related to:
- Fixing the governance model
- Fixing the delivery model
- Reducing overlaps of products and services within the Province and between the Province and Federal programs
The report was one of the best i’ve seen so far – it cuts directly to the issues and provides some very rational recommendations.
Best practices, Business, business incubators, Canada, Canadian Politics, Clusters, Commercialization, Creative Class, depression 2.0, Economy, Ecosystems, Entreprenuerism, General Interest, Government, Government Policy, Innovation, Jobs, OCRI, Ontario, Regional Economic Development, Trends, Unemployment, Universities, Venture Capital
Sharp Decline in US Imports and Exports Reported in January
March 14, 2009
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Sharp declines in US trade was reported in January 2009. The following chart from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com highlights the sharp downward trend (red is imports and blue is exports) -
Here is a chart showing inbound and outbound container traffic to the port of Los Angeles – it mirrors the decline -
High Tech Worker Study Shows Optimistic Disposition Helps Reduce Stress Levels
March 13, 2009
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In 2002, Carleton University ran a survey to look at stress among tech workers – “Coping with Job Uncertainty : A Survey of Employed and Unemployed High Technology Workers”. The report identified numerous interesting results, however the one that I found particularly noteworthy was the fact they found that people who have an optimistic predisposition have a natural buffer against stress. In fact, the more optimistic one’s nature, the less stress they reported.
The full report is available here.
Canadian Unemployment in February Hits 7.7%
March 13, 2009
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Stats Canada has reported that Canada’s unemployment rate hit 7.7% in February.
In February, Ontario unemployment hit 8.7%. Stats Canada also noted that just over half of all employment losses in Canada since October have happened in Ontario
More details on Canada’s forecast unemployment rates and trends for 2009 is in this blog.
Comparison of Canada’s unemployment rates with the great depression is in this blog.
Chrysler to Canada – Hand Over the Cash or I Shoot 9,000 Kittens!
March 12, 2009
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According to the Globe and Mail, Chrysler has resorted to extortion in order to extract tax payer money to prop up their failing company. According to the article:
At a parliamentary committee hearing last night, Chrysler president Thomas LaSorda said the company would commit to maintaining roughly a quarter of its North American production in Canada if its “needs” are met.
Chrysler then went on to list three demands/conditions of Chrysler continuing operations in Canada: union concessions, tax payer money, and an agreement that Canada will back off on its tax collection efforts to recover $1B in taxes it currently owes the Canadian people.
Canada’s Industry Minister Tony Clement has responded today saying that -
(Chrysler officials) “can say whatever they want. … Taxpayers expect us to apply the same rules to everybody in Canada and we’re not going to change the rules for Chrysler”
US, Canada and European Governments Actively Preparing for Widescale Civil Unrest?
March 10, 2009
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This blog entry noted european think tank forecasts of civil unrest in the US as a consequence of the economic crisis.
It was reported back in September 2008 that -
U.S. troops returning from duty in Iraq will be carrying out homeland patrols in America from October 1st in complete violation of Posse Comitatus for the purposes of helping with “civil unrest and crowd control” – which could include dealing with unruly Americans after a complete economic collapse.
In February 2009, news reports have highlighted that the US Army is purchasing a significant ($6M) amount of riot gear.
Another article published in February highlighted increased urban warfare training drills by the US Army in cities around the US.
Other news reports have highlighted past “behind the scenes” preparation by the US government relative to even a modest level of anticipated civil unrest, such as the advance preparation of massive prisoner holding pens which were put in place for expected mass arrests during the Denver Democratic National Convention in 2008.
Denver
Recently, a bill entitled the National Emergency Centers Establishment Act (HR 645) was introduced in the US Congress in January. It calls for the establishment of six national emergency centers in major regions in the US to be located on existing military installations. The stated purpose of the “national emergency centers” is to provide “temporary housing, medical, and humanitarian assistance to individuals and families dislocated due to an emergency or major disaster.” Some pundits say that this bill is in reality establishing domestic internment camps since HR 645 explicitly states that the camps can be used to “meet other appropriate needs, as determined by the Secretary of Homeland Security.”
In Canada, the RCMP is actively recruiting for 2,000 new officers.
Also interesting is that in 2008, the Canadian and US Government signed an agreement to use each other’s troops in civil emergencies.
UK newspapers have reported that European leaders fear civil unrest over the worsening economy, and that:
Europe’s top politicians are so rattled by the prospect of growing protests that they have arranged an emergency leaders’ summit in March to deal with growing tensions.
