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Great Depression Unemployment versus 2009 and the Coming Storm?

What did the unemployment rates look like in the Great Depression?

During Great Depression,  unemployment numbers in the US hit 20-25% at its peak, and Canadian unemployment hit 27%.

Current unemployment numbers and forecasts for Canada and the United States are discussed in this blog entry.  We are not into Great Depression unemployment rates, but we are certainly on the same trend line:

Great Depression Unemployment Rate


Some interesting links related to the Great Depression and Canada:

If you are looking to create your own opportunities in the challenging economic environment, you might want to take a look at the work on Business Ecosystems.

If you are interested in knowing what businesses typically do well in recession conditions, please take a look at this blog entry

If you have an established business and are wondering what actions you can take to survive and prosper, please take a look at this blog entry.

If you are wondering about the possibility of civil unrest, please take a look at this blog entry.

Great Depression Related Videos

Two Tier Medicine – Good or Bad?

I have experienced private medicine in the US in the past when I’ve gotten sick on business trips.  My experiences in the US were generally good – fast, quality service, with current diagnostic tools – but for a price.   When I walked into an emergency ward in Texas, the first words out of the reception nurse was not “What is the problem?”, but rather “How will you be paying?”   In all cases I was lucky enough to have Blue Cross or company insurance cover the extra medical expenses.

I recently experienced private, two tier medicine in Canada.  I visited MEDCAN in Toronto for their “comprehensive health assessment”.   It took approximately 6 hours from start to finish and covered off tests that would have normally taken several days out of my time over a period of  weeks to  attend and then have the subsequent follow-up meeting with the doctor.  The MEDCAN service was fast, quality service, with current diagnostic tools – but for a price.

I talked about the experience with a doctor friend of mine who runs a large family practice in Ontario.   He was very much against two tier medicine in Canada because he feels it is undermining public medicine.   He holds that medicine in Canada should be a public service – available to everyone regardless of wealth or position.

What do you think?

Unemployment in Canada will be 10% or higher in 2009..

The following table is based on historical data from Statistics Canada, it shows the tight coupling of US and Canada unemployment rates, with the Canadian rates generally lagging the US.  The Canadian unemployment rates have been historically higher then the US by anywhere up to 4%:

unemployment

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The current unemployment numbers for the US and Canada are as follows:

  • United States Department of Labor states the current unemployment rate as 8.1% as of February 2009.   States with double digit employment in January 2009 were reported as: California 10.1%, Michigan 11.16%, Rhode Island 10.3%, South Carolina 10.4%.
us-unemployment

US Department of Labor, Feb 6, 2009 - Unemployment Rate

  • Statistics Canada states the current unemployment rate as 7.7% as of February 2009, with Ontario at 8.7% unemployment

unemploymentrate

Statistics Canada, March 13 2009 - Unemployment Rate

The  historically tight coupling of the US and Canada unemployment rates mean that US forecasts can be reasonably used as a proxy for future Canadian unemployment rates.   Some sources and their forecasts for the 2009 US unemployment rate follow:

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Bank of Montreal is forecasting a US unemployment rate of 9.3% in 4Q09.

Royal Bank of Canada is forecasting a US unemployment rate of 8.8% in 4Q09.

Based on the current forecast US unemployment rates and past trends, I expect the Canadian unemployment rate to rise to over 10% and potentially over 14% nationally by 4Q09. (NOTE: Toronto Dominion bank’s March forecasts expect Canadian unemployment to reach 9.9% by 4Q09.)

The coupling of the Canada and US unemployment rates  is interesting in many ways.  In particular, there are academic papers that examine the question of Canadian government policy -  specifically, can Canadian policy have any significant impact on Canadian unemployment numbers due to the tight coupling of our economy to that of the US?

My sense is our government, in general, has little hope of stopping Canadian unemployment rates from following that of the US.   I believe that from a practical perspective, all our government can reasonably do is moderate the impact of the unemployment growth with special social and employment programs; and sustain our economy and workforce until the US economy recovers by driving infrastructure and  entrepreneurial economic development programs.

In order to break the cycle, the Canadian government should be actively working to diversify our economy by  aggressively fostering new small business development and developing export relationships and associated selling channels with other countries outside of the US.

Some interesting articles and papers on the US and Canada unemployment numbers include the following:

A factor that can have a big impact on the rate of unemployment growth is what protectionist actions are taken by Canada, the US and others.  It is almost inevitable that if the recession continues to deepen — politicians will find protectionism as  one of the last tools in their basket of options to try.   Already the politicians are dancing around this topic – some articles on this topic are below:

Small Business Has a BIG Impact on the Canadian Economy

Many people are not aware of the big impact that small business has on the Canadian economy.   Unfortunately, the focus of the news and government is usually on the few large companies – automotive and financial of late.

The Government of Canada publishes a ton of data on small businesses.   Some key metrics from 2007 about small business in Canada include:

  • There are over 1 million small businesses in Canada
  • Small businesses that have fewer than 50 employees -  contribute 26 percent to Canada’s GDP
  • Small businesses employed approximately 5 million individuals – 48 percent of the total labor force in the private sector
  • Small businesses created 100,000 jobs  – accounting for over 40 percent of all jobs created in Canada

Good sources for information on small businesses in Canada, their characteristics and impact on Canada’s economy include the following:

Ottawa Economic Numbers

From an economic contribution perspective, the 3Q08 Ottawa Economic Outlook from CRG Consulting  states that 75% of the local economy is tied to the presence of the Federal Government directly and indirectly.

From a raw jobs numbers and revenue generated locally perspective, the Ottawa City Economic Plan states that the top employers and earners for the city as of 2003 are as follows:

ottawajobs1

2006 census statistics for Ottawa provide a good view of population characteristics.  The following chart provides a view of population by industry sector:

ottawaindustry

Ottawa Already Has an Innovation Hub – It’s Name is Tony Bailetti

It was great to see the article from Peter Kovessy of the Ottawa Business Journal today entitled “Innovation Hub in Stagnation”.  We need more public oversight, debate and analysis on how our local political leaders have and  are proposing to spend our tax dollars to spur innovation and economic growth for our region.

Relative to the Innovation Hub idea – there have been very negative public comments made about the plan  from Ottawa tech leaders and entrepreneurs right from the beginning. The father of local high tech, Denzil Doyle, was straight to the point:

It is discouraging to see the idea of an Innovation Hub being run up the flagpole. On a scale of one to ten, I would rate it at minus five as something that is going to solve the region’s high tech problems. About 20 years ago, we were told that if we invested in a life sciences technology park, we would grow a life sciences industry that would rival the telecom industry. We all know how that turned out. We seem to forget that Mitel started in the basement of an office building in Kanata and that a combination of its working capital and outside investment financed its real estate requirements thereafter. DY-4 started in a very ordinary building on Laperriere Ave – and so on.

Entrepreneur John Oligvie called it out:

I have spent a lot of time in Silicon Valley and in Boston and these two global high-tech centers have managed so far without building “innovation hubs”. This is discredited, “big government” thinking. Technical and business innovation can only be done by entrepreneurs, not by government. If you asked local VCs and tech entrepreneurs what they needed most in order to succeed, I doubt that anyone’s first answer would be “a big shiny new building”.

From my perspective, I have yet to talk to a local entrepreneur who is supportive of the Innovation Hub.  When it comes to high tech and innovation driven economic development – most do not feel the City of Ottawa is coupled into reality.

I personally believe we need to have less of our tax money being spent on “overheads” such as buildings and associated staff and instead direct the tax money to programs that directly support the needs of regional entrepreneurs and the important local economic development they produce.

People like Tony Bailetti and the Talent First Network are on the right track -

“To innovate effectively, small and cheap is big; big and expensive simply doesn’t work” says Bailetti. He adds: “What we need to drive massive innovation in Ottawa is many small innovation hubs like TheCodefactory, all linked to early buyers worldwide. Mechanisms that enable our innovators working anywhere in Ottawa to collaborate with early buyers at the start of the innovation cycle can produce significant benefits for our community.”

Tony Bailetti is one of the few people around that truly understands what it takes to foster innovation and deliver regional economic development.   His actions and results as one man have exceeded the results of any local organization or initiative when it comes to developing entrepreneurial activity and results for our region.  He is motivated by the desire to “Do the right thing” and “To make a difference” for his community and his students.   Tony is one of Ottawa’s (if not Canada’s) most valuable resources when it comes to economic development and technology innovation.

As an example – in 2002, Tony Bailetti ran an entrepreneurial training course called “Lead to Win”.   The course was free to the participants.  Of the 29 participants – over 50% launched a company in the Ottawa region.  The resulting entrepreneurial activity, innovation and  companies – launched by that one initiative, by that one manresulted in the creation of over 300 local jobs and the influx of over $90M into our local economy.

That is exactly the type of  community-based leadership and grass-roots economic development activity our governments should be encouraging, learning from and backing.

Ottawa already has an Innovation Hub and its name is Tony Bailetti.


Bottom-up Economic Stimulus?

I just heard a very interesting proposal from Lawrence Lindsey (as a guest on the Daily Show) regarding economic stimulus strategy.    He proposed that rather than spending $B top-down – instead reduce personal and business taxes by an equivalent amount of $B of investment.   He noted the potential benefits of quickly putting money into the pockets of individual workers which can be put into the economy,  and reducing business operations costs – providing incentive to create jobs/maintain jobs.    An interesting idea.

For those with $5,000 laying around and some time on your hands – you could do some simulation on  various tax policies using this Stats Canada simulation software and data.

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